Prospects of Using Tree-Ring Earlywood and Latewood Width for Reconstruction of Crops Yield on Example of South Siberia

Improvement of dendrochronological crops yield reconstruction by separate application earlywood and latewood width chronologies succeeded in rain-fed semiarid region. (1) Background: Tree-ring have been successfully applied for models. We propose separated as possible predictors improving the fitness (2) Methods: The generalized series main (spring wheat, spring barley, oats) were investigated irrigated areas steppes South Siberia. Chronologies earlywood, latewood, total ring Siberian larch (Larix sibirica Ledeb.) growing forest-steppe middle study area tested (3) Results: In territory, separation allowed increasing variation explained model from 17.4 to 20.5%, whereas climatic-driven component was 41.5%. However, both tree-ring based models only 7.7% territory (climate inclusion increased it 34.8%). Low temperature sensitivity growth limitation model. A 240-year (1780–2019) history crop failures dynamics estimated actual data best (4) Conclusions: Presently region, breeding environment-resistant varieties compensates increase dynamics, preventing severe harvest losses. reconstructions may help understand forecast response climatic variability, also probability failures, particularly territories.